Friday, May 10, 2013

Opening Comments 5-10-2013 USDA Report Day - Limit move coming up?


Markets are called choppy to start this a.m. but it is a wait and see day.  Hurry up and wait for the USDA report that will be out at 11:00 central time.

Corn was down 3-4 cents, KC wheat was off 4-8 cents, MPLS wheat was off 4, CBOT wheat was off 4-7 cents, old crop beans up a couple, and new crop beans down a couple.  Outside markets are pointing to a slightly firmer opening in the DOW, the US dollar continues its strength up a couple hundred points, crude is down a couple bucks, and gold is getting hit hard down 38 bucks an ounce.

With gold and crude price action it really looks like a risk off day for the commodities; but for the grains it will all be about the report out at 11.  The report should help set the stages to how important weather is; it will tell us if we need to curb more old crop demand or find more new crop demand.  The big question or concerns we really need to watch for continue to be the world crop sizes and the new crop balance sheets.

USDA estimate are below.

The below is coming from the Van Trump Report.



US Ending Stocks 2012/13 

May #
April USDA #
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
0.757
0.749
0.684 - 0.800
Soybeans
???
0.125
0.123
0.107 - 0.130
Wheat
???
0.731
0.733
0.720 - 0.747

US Ending Stocks 2013/14


May #
Feb Ag Outlook
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
2.177 
1.993
1.387 - 2.427
Soybeans
???
0.250
0.236
0.147 - 0.325
Wheat
???
0.639
0.658
0.486 - 0.800

Global Ending Stocks 2012/13


May #
April USDA #
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
125.290
125.646
123.500 - 132.100
Soybeans
???
62.630
62.300
61.111 - 63.000
Wheat
???
182.260
181.528
178.300 - 183.200

Global Ending Stocks 2013/14

May #
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
151.695
130.000 - 168.300
Soybeans
???
68.991
64.000 - 83.000
Wheat
???
184.368
175.000 - 195.800

US Wheat Production


May #
2012 Totals
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
All Wheat
???
2.269
2.062
1.832 - 2.190
All Winter
???
1.646
1.497
1.359 - 1.604
Hard Red Winter
???
1.004
0.776
0.676 - 0.875
Soft Red Winter
???
0.420
0.504
0.473 - 0.636
White Winter
???
0.222
0.217
0.204 - 0.226

South American Production


May #
April USDA #
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Brazil Corn
???
74.000
74.708
73.000 - 77.500
Brazil Soy
???
83.500
82.807
81.500 - 83.500
Argentine Corn
???
26.500
25.583
24.000 - 26.500
Argentine Soy
???
51.500
50.714
48.500 - 51.500


I did actually see a little producer movement pick up late yesterday.  Which was probably just the right thing to do ahead of a USDA report as we never know what wild card they may through on the table.

I do continue to see some comments on the Australia wheat crop size; mainly comments that moisture is needed.  To get a bull market we will need some issues with some of our competitors and Australia is one of them.

South American has bought about 400k tones of corn and wheat combined this week; with most of it either out of South America or optional – origin. 

The Buenos Aires Cereals exchange left their estimate of the Argentine soybean crop unchanged at 48.5 MMT; versus the USDA at 51.5 before today’s update.  They also left their corn number unchanged at 24.8 MMT versus the USDA at 26.5 MMT.

Weather is still a mixed bag and today’s report as well as Monday’s crop progress will tell us how important it is.  Keep in mind that one day we will go from weather and moisture causing delays and acre losses to the mind set of rain makes grain.  That is part of the reason it has been hard to rally our markets behind the idea that we won’t get it planted or will be losing acres.

Watch the weather this weekend and see if any of the possible freezes develop.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

2 comments:

  1. This is so much more than i needed!!! but will all come in use thanks!!I am a china tour lover,You can learn more: China travel packages | Asia tour packages | China city tour packages

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hanbridge was the best because they had excellent teachers and a very friendly and welcoming spirit . I really appreciate the opportunity to learn here and would recommend Hanbridge to others.



    More Chinese learning tags : Learn Chinese | learn mandarin online | Mandarin Online Course



    ReplyDelete