Markets are called weaker this a.m. behind a weaker
overnight session despite yesterdays crop conditions report that should have been
considered friendly.
In the overnight session nearby corn was off 3-4 cents, new
crop December corn was down 6, soybeans ranged from up 2 to down 3, KC wheat
was down 3-5 cents, MPLS wheat off 2-7 cents, and CBOT wheat was off 7- 8
cents. The US dollar is firmer this
a.m., equity futures are firming pointing to about a positive 50 point start on
the DOW, crude is off about a buck, and gold is off about 4.00 bucks.
It looks like December corn is flirting with some support
that if validated could pressure the market even more. Dec corn is within pennies of the low made
April 1st or the day after the stocks report. Why with nothing getting planted; because the
forecast has turned warmer and drier and looks to allow planting to
happen. Yesterday’s crop condition
report showed corn planting at 4% versus last year of 26% and the 26% on
average. Right now it doesn’t look like
much will happen for the next few days; but some planting could be taking place
by the weekend or early next week in some areas. So basically the market feels like it is trading
the forecast not the past or the present.
Spring wheat planting progress was only up 1% last week and
that came from the PNW states; while winter wheat conditions slipped. Some areas in HRW country were suppose to get
cold last night too. All supportive but
all also old news or at least news that isn’t leading the headlines enough to
have the money flowing in and buying commodities.
One thing we need to realize is that the funds haven’t
exactly done super well buying grains the past few years; they have a tendency
to buy at the top and sell at the bottom.
So maybe some of that needed money flow just isn’t happening? Also plenty of news wires and banks have made
plenty of statements about the commodity burst being over. If we don’t have money flowing into our
markets we will struggle to bounce as much as we would like.
It does sound like we sold more new crop soybeans to China
once again; but we need the demand for the old crop as that is where bull
markets typically start.
Stats Canada will have their numbers out Wednesday morning
for acre estimates. Keep in mind that
with areas of the Dakotas behind in planting so are the areas north of us. We could really use a smaller Canadian wheat
crop as they haven’t helped our price or basis this past year as it seemed like
they always had wheat for sale cheaper than the US.
Spreads remain firm but so far not firm enough to let the
board get up and rally.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you
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