Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Opening Comments 4-9-2013

Markets are called mixed this a.m. after a choppy mixed overnight session.

The overnight session paused with nearby corn up 3 cents, new crop corn down a penny, beans off 1 ½ cents a bushel, KC wheat down ½ , CBOT wheat down 2 ½ , and MPLS wheat down 2.  Presently the US dollar is weaker with the cash index off over 300 points at 82.430, equity futures are pointing towards a small positive start, gold  is up a couple bucks, and crude is down 20 cents a barrel.

Not a ton of new news this a.m. and really we are nearing a wait and see mode; waiting for Wednesday’s updated USDA Supply and Demand report.  We did have crop conditions out yesterday but the only thing really noted was the wheat conditions which saw a small improvement in the eastern part of the US.

Estimates for the report this week are for an increase in the corn carryout; yet some in the trade might be looking for the USDA to do what it’s done the past couple of years and that is basically ignore the stocks report versus the trade estimates as each of the last two years the March stocks reports came in below trade estimates which would lead guys to think feed usage would be increase in the April report; but instead each of the last two years feed usage was not increased; it was left unchanged one year and decreased the other.  Perhaps it is just a bounce or some profit taking via the shorts; but the reason it looks like some are a little friendly for the report is the firming spreads.  The May-July corn spread has gained a good 5-6 cents off of its lows in the past day or two.

Sounds like CONAB raised their corn production in Brazil while dropping their Bean production.

Still seeing some talk of demand concern as it relates to the China bird flu and what that will do to soybean demand and bean meal demand.

Sounds like Brazil soybean harvest is about 80% complete.

Basis for corn, winter wheat, and spring wheat feels steady.  But without much nearby demand; most end users are full nearby and with corn that means the coverage they are looking for is under an inverted board; while the market in general is looking for a carry.

Cool winter weather could start making a headline for planting delays.  But you really can’t talk big time about it when the planting progress isn’t even getting reported.  But it should be on the radar as we go forward; also talk of some of the ND and part of MN acres switching could hit headlines in the next few weeks.

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