Markets are called weaker this a.m. behind as it looks like
we had a risk off type of mode in the overnight session.
In the overnight session corn was off 9-12 cents, beans were
down 8-13 cents, KC wheat was off 12-13 cents, MPLS wheat was down 6-7 cents,
and CBOT wheat was down 14-15 cents.
Despite the pressure spreads were firmer in the overnight session with
the nearby future contracts showing some strength against the deferred months. Outside markets are were the pressure is
coming from and mainly gold which is down about 90 bucks an ounce which is 25
bucks an ounce off of its lows, crude is down about 2 bucks a barrel, stock
market futures are pointing to a lower start with the DOW futures off about 40
points, and the US dollar is down slightly with the June futures at 82.310.
I think today it is all about what the funds want to do and
that seems to be risk off. The actual
news for grains is quiet; we will have export shipments out this a.m. and this
afternoon we will have an updated crop progress condition report. Weather doesn’t look to be a ton unchanged
from last week we still don’t know how much damage was done to the wheat crop
and planting progress has went no were in the last week. Parts of ND got hammered the past couple of
days with more snow and that might be pushing field work even further
behind. Probably friendly corn and
bearish beans as that is what looks like is happening to some acres.
Part of the weakness in the outside markets is coming from
last week’s technical breakdown on the gold charts and data from China that
indicated a slow 1st quarter of economic growth in China. Plus Goldman said to sell and others question
how good of an actual hedge gold is?
One good thing the grains might have going for them today is
the fact that the fund positions are not nearly as large as many thought as
last week’s CFTC COT report showed the funds not nearly as long as expected for
the grains across the board.
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