Monday, April 15, 2013

Opening comments 4-15-2013


Markets are called weaker this a.m. behind as it looks like we had a risk off type of mode in the overnight session.

In the overnight session corn was off 9-12 cents, beans were down 8-13 cents, KC wheat was off 12-13 cents, MPLS wheat was down 6-7 cents, and CBOT wheat was down 14-15 cents.  Despite the pressure spreads were firmer in the overnight session with the nearby future contracts showing some strength against the deferred months.  Outside markets are were the pressure is coming from and mainly gold which is down about 90 bucks an ounce which is 25 bucks an ounce off of its lows, crude is down about 2 bucks a barrel, stock market futures are pointing to a lower start with the DOW futures off about 40 points, and the US dollar is down slightly with the June futures at 82.310.

I think today it is all about what the funds want to do and that seems to be risk off.  The actual news for grains is quiet; we will have export shipments out this a.m. and this afternoon we will have an updated crop progress condition report.  Weather doesn’t look to be a ton unchanged from last week we still don’t know how much damage was done to the wheat crop and planting progress has went no were in the last week.  Parts of ND got hammered the past couple of days with more snow and that might be pushing field work even further behind.  Probably friendly corn and bearish beans as that is what looks like is happening to some acres.

Part of the weakness in the outside markets is coming from last week’s technical breakdown on the gold charts and data from China that indicated a slow 1st quarter of economic growth in China.  Plus Goldman said to sell and others question how good of an actual hedge gold is?

One good thing the grains might have going for them today is the fact that the fund positions are not nearly as large as many thought as last week’s CFTC COT report showed the funds not nearly as long as expected for the grains across the board.

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