Thursday, April 25, 2013

Closing Comments - by Jordan Dvorak


Markets were firmer today with Corn up 6 in o/c and 3 on n/c, Beans up 27 on o/c and up 13 on nc, ww up 22 sw up 7.  US dollar was weaker crude up almost 2 bucks and DOW down up 25 points. 

 

All around good day in the markets today with strength being attributed to frost/freeze damage in the southern wheat belt.  Still very few planters rolling in the eastern corn belt with recent rains but they are close to firing up.  Talk that Northern China is getting dry and could be hurting their corn crop. This could be a long term bullish factor to watch. China is the second largest producer of corn in the world. Corn Harvest in Argentina is said to be close to 25% complete. Forecasts still showing chances of rain in the US a week out.  With most of the US’s corn getting planted in May now this could be a cause for some more planting delays.  Flooding concerns still along the Mississippi and the Red River in ND and MN.  USDA announced a NC sale of corn to China today and another sale to unknown

 

Beans rallied on strong sales of meal again this week.  we are at a negative now on weekly sales required of meal for the year.  Soybeans themselves saw net cancelations this week, with China canceling a big chunk.  Bean movement seems pretty slow still with the domestic crushers being the market to sell to right now. 

 

Wheat was probably the big leader today with frost and drought as the booming stories today.  The wheat tour will start next week and hopefully we will get a better grasp of the damage in our major wheat producing states.  We have to keep in mind that the US has large stocks of wheat from last year and even if we have minor issues down south this year does not guarantee us going to $10 or more.  ND and south still have a lot of SW in the bins and from more than one year ago.  All of this stuff is going to have to make a move sometime.  Today was the first day in a long time there was some wheat being priced in the country.

 

Birdseed side still seems steady with end users pulling product off of application and not replacing the purchases too quickly.  Always seems like there is 1 guy looking to buy from 2 people looking to sell.  With another couple weeks of planting ahead of us how many Sunflower will move?  Will the end users need to bid this thing up a little bit to get you guys to take your eyes off of planting or will they sit and wait patiently?  Only time will tell I guess. I think if we see a dollar or two rally in SFLs we will see a lot of pounds start moving.  Warm weather this weekend should get guys going in the field very soon. 

 

Thanks

 

 

 

Jordan Dvorak

Grain Procurement

Midwest Cooperatives

3 comments:

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