Thursday, March 14, 2013

Closing Comments 3-14-2013

Markets closed firmer for the most part.

Wheat lead the way up 15 firmer in CBOT, KC wheat was 15 higher, MPLS wheat was up 5-6, corn was up 6, soybeans were down 12, the stock market had some strength up 84 points, the US dollar was down 332 with the June US dollar at 82.82.

A couple good things happened today on the charts.  Wheat continued it’s winning streak and gained a little more momentum; some of the contracts now have 6 days up in a row and are near some resistance levels that could lead to even further short covering.  The other positive we had was the US dollar had a little reversal; as it got to it’s highest levels since last September but then closed lower.

Wheat appears to having some things starting to line up; funds still short; demand increasing as seen via increased feed demand and better exports this a.m.  We also have a forecast that might be freezing in some of the areas that wheat has came out of dormancy.  I don’t think it is a major threat today; but it is another possible headline to cause the funds to cover some shorts or maybe even look at going long.

Wheat basis feels defensive; but not as defensive as corn basis is.  I can’t sell within a dime the numbers that I could a week or two ago for corn; just a lack of homes.  Interest is still out there just not for anytime soon.  Longer term risk is that nearby coverage spills over to later slots.

Exports for wheat were great this a.m.   Beans also had solid export numbers.  The corn number was nothing great. 

Watch weather and what the funds do over the next couple of weeks for market direction.  Keep in mind we are near the time when we ideally see some weather scares.  Planting isn’t exactly on this torrid pace as even locally it seems we are a couple weeks behind last year.

NOPA crush numbers are out tomorrow and March futures went off of the board.  Some thought we could have some fireworks but that wasn’t really the case.

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