Thursday, January 10, 2013

Closing Comments - USDA Report Preview 1-10-13


Rather choppy trade today ahead of the USDA updated Supply and Demand report which is out tomorrow January 11th at 11 central time.

Corn was up 4, beans were off 6, KC wheat was off 5, MPLS wheat was off a penny, CBOT wheat was off a penny, equity markets closed firmer with the DOW up 80 points, crude was up around a dollar, gold was firmer, and the US Dollar got hammered.

Overall a little disappointing day for the grains.  Corn up for the 4th session in a row was good; but to see beans weaker and wheat weaker despite the US getting a little Egypt wheat business and very weak US dollar has to be disappointing to say the least.

As mentioned above we get do a cargo of wheat business with Egypt but so did Canada.  One positive from this is that Egypt who just a few days ago claimed to be covered for the next several months came in and bought.  Perhaps showing that “cheap wheat” does attract a little demand?

Exports sales this a.m. where horrible for corn at only 500,000 bushels; the bean and wheat number was also on the soft side of expectations.

As we go forward it really comes down to tomorrow’s report.  One thing that should make one a little nervous is the fact that we have had a few up days in a row for corn and the bias of the market seems to be one that is looking for a bullish report.  I would not have said this a week or two ago; but it really feels like the market is looking for a bullish report; so that adds in the risk of is the report bullish enough?

I do not think the same thing can be said for wheat and beans; and no one is really looking for any big bullish surprises for them so perhaps that is where the bullish surprises happen?????

I am not going to give any more reasons to be bullish or bearish into the report.  Rather just lay out the numbers and say as far as marketing goes the thing one needs to look at doing is getting themselves comfortable.  If you haven’t done that and want to do something ahead of the report please give us a call.

Thanks


Below is from the Van Trump Report and it shows the estimates for Friday’s USDA report which will be out at 11:00 central time January 11th.

2012-13 Final January Production Corn & Soybeans

Todays #
Previous USDA #
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn Total Crop
???
10.725
10.650
10.325 - 10.800
Corn Yield Avg
???
122.3
122.6
121.3 - 125.0
Harvested Acres
???
87.721
86.89
84.56 - 87.72
Soybean Crop
???
2.971
2.993
2.935 - 3.104
Soy Yield Avg
???
39.3
39.6
38.9 - 41.0
Harvested Acres
???
75.693
75.56
74.70 - 75.90

2012-13 January Ending Stocks

New #
Previous USDA #
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
0.647
0.647
0.489 - 0.760
Soybeans
???
0.130
0.135
0.114 - 0.186
Wheat
???
0.754
0.741
0.637 - 0.792

December 1st Quarterly Stocks

New #
Dec 1 Last Year
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
9.647
8.219
8.000 - 8.750
Soybeans
???
2.370
1.981
1.800 - 2.100
Wheat
???
1.633
1.684
1.553 - 1.750

USDA Winter Wheat Acres

New #
Previous USDA #
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Total Winter
???
41.324
42.585
41.700 - 44.650
Hard Red
???
29.863
30.296
29.900 - 31.000
Soft Red
???
8.120
8.898
8.217 - 10.000
White
???
3.350
3.474
3.300 - 3.920

South American Production Numbers

New #
Previous USDA #
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses
Brazil Corn
???
70.0
70.4
69.0 - 72.7
Argentine Corn
???
27.5
25.9
23.0 - 27.5
Brazil Soy
???
81.0
81.9
78.9 - 84.0
Argentine Soy
???
55.0
54.6
52.5 - 57.0




Jeremey Frost
Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
605-295-3100 (cell)
605-258-2166 (fax)

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