Crude oil is down $1.00…US$ is 0.200 firmer…DJIA is up
4 points…grains-can’t be up everyday
Corn---can’t be up everyday as traders think to tomorrow’s
USDA and square up and take profits. Tomorrow report may be irrelevant as
traders may not agree with USDA anyway….. Rain seems to stay 7 days out, and we
now needed it last week. Get to July 30 and rain will not make much of a
difference and we will transition to a demand market. Markets are at the highs
when news is at its worst…can news get much worse??? The US corn crop is
smaller today than it was yesterday. Period…but we need to remember we have
already rallied $2.00+…. So something is factored in. Hearing ethanol plants
being told by management to cut grind 30% immediately. Talk of selling
contracts back to elevators and no new DDG sales! Also hearing farmers on the
fringes of the “new” corn belt realizing they can not grow dryland corn as
weather doesn’t allow it…there was a reason the old timers grew wheat. Because
the rain was Nov to May, Not may to July!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Spreads are slightly
weaker. We are beginning to see major signs of a demand slowdown. Farmgate
offers now well above the market as many open orders have been achieved. Much
speculation on the mandate and whether uncle sam ever considered what happens
when the US sees a drought.
Soyabeans---world demand remains strong. Mainly China. US
crusher watches beans go by door to the export market. Dryness hurts the beans
to as beans are losing yield potential daily as well in many areas, but there
remains time to still have a good crop. Where moisture allows there are still
double crop beans being seeded, but those areas are scattered. Total
planted/harvested acres may not be as high as predicted as summer dryness hurts
the double crop option. New crop export book is large but then again there
seems to be plenty of old crop book too yet to execute. SX:CZ is 2.14:1, so
there is room for beans to run on the spread.
Wheat---SRW and HRW harvest moves fast as the crop is now
75+% in the bin. Spring wheat is coming on fast as warm and dry weather brings
it early and harvest will be sooner than we think. Still has great potential
but could use a few cooler temps and a shot of rain. MT has a few issues. MGEx
is flat, KC and CME are carries…World still experiences a few production issues
but Canada looks mostly OK and the US skated by without any major, major
issues. Black Sea region has a weather issue as their production is still in question,
which in turn brings into question their ability to export. USDA report
tomorrow may not really mean much
***new crop train values are slashed as all the grain seems
to be in the WCB and the RRs want this new grain to move to the PNW and the export
market. Farmer selling is quiet and they are now bullish again…World has
experienced drought in Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, S Brazil and other areas the
past 12 months!!! Will the highs be seen in July????? Call if you need anything
Christopher Steinhoff
Market Analyst
800-328-6530
651-355-6558
651-355-3723 fax
Market Analyst
800-328-6530
651-355-6558
651-355-3723 fax
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