Friday, May 11, 2012

Beans get smacked! - Neutral Nick update time

Beans got smacked today so it is time for Neutral Nick to look at his positions in an effort to try and manage his risk.

He went threw all of his positions and felt good about all of the months and all of the commodities other then July beans.

For corn he felt that his p & l graphs where at good support areas and didn't feel the need to chase in which might cause a lot of whipsaw action.

Same for wheat.

Before his soybean adjustments which I will display below he has overall profits in most of the trades he has on and his expiration profits giving him a much more potential.  Those charts have changed since his last update about a week ago.  You can find them at

Soybeans today broke some major support and could very well see plenty of follow threw weakness; then again if you look at the report a couple days ago you might think beans have plenty more upside.

The corn and wheat markets are at the bottom end of the ranges they have been for some time; if we don't bounce Mr Neutral Nick might have to look to adjust sometime in the near future as he does have put options sold that are now close to or in some cases slightly in the money.  As mentioned before Neutral Nick this time around is using a little bias and his bias for those markets are A we are near a harvest low for wheat and we have year over year month over month decreasing supplies and B the cash corn market has shown no weakness leaving the cheapest spot to buy corn still the board for many so he isn't wanting to adjust at this time and C the new crop corn showing a yield of 166 is a little premature; Nick and myself are in the camp that we should see a weather scare at some point.

Here are Nick's updates and his corresponding bean graphs.

His only trades this week are the sale of 50 July 13.50 puts and 100 of the July 14.50 calls.  With us getting closer to the June expiration of these options this will probably be the last time he sells any July options.  He might buy some; but one thing he has to watch out for is Gamma Risk.

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