Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Opening Comments - UGLY Equity Markets - Mixed calls for grains

Markets are called mixed to weaker behind a mixed overnight session and rather weak outside markets.  Weakness in the outsides seems to be coming from yesterdays FED minutes that indicate their will not be a QE3.

In the overnight session corn was up 2 on old crop, new crop corn was down 2, beans where off 5-6 cents, KC wheat was down 8, MPLS wheat was down 4, and CBOT wheat was off 8.  At 9:15 outside markets have European Wheat off about 1 %, Gold is off about 50 an ounce, crude down 1.40, the US dollar is firmer up 300 points on the cash index at 79.79, and the Equity markets are under pressure with the DOW off 140 points.

It looks like we could have a risk off type of day; with the funds massive longs in beans there should be some risk to that market and with them very short wheat we could actually make an argument that we see some short covering at some point; but overall the outsides probably hurt our markets and potentially throw a train wreck to them. 

There was a company out this a.m. that estimated the EU wheat production down 6.3 mmt versus last month due to dry weather in March.

Next week their will be an updated USDA S & D report; the estimates I have seen so far are looking for cuts to our old crop corn and bean balance sheets while they had wheat unchanged.  The market is also looking for much smaller SA crops.  More estimates should be out in the next few days; we need to look for some sort of follow threw from this last bullish report.

Don’t forget that this afternoon we will have our weekly MWC Marketing Hour Round Table meetings; in which we go over charts and various strategies for marketing.

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