Friday, April 20, 2012

Grain Market Comments 4-20-12 Did China buy US corn or not?

Markets are called mixed this a.m. behind supportive outside markets but a mixed overnight session.

In the overnight session old crop corn was up a nickel, new crop corn was up a penny, beans were up 6 cents, KC wheat was unchanged, MPLS wheat was also unchanged, and CBOT wheat was off a penny.  At 9:10 outside markets have European wheat near unchanged, crude is up about 1.80 a barrel, gold is up a couple dollars an ounce, the dollar is softer down 370 on the cash index at 79.195, and equities are firmer with the DOW up 80 points.

Not much for new news out there this a.m.  The market is still waiting on confirmation of the Chinese corn purchased that is rumored to be 400,000 to 750,000 metric tons. 

Weather is on the cool side with some very small spots called to get rather cold this weekend.  Suppose to see weather warm up a little for most of the US next week; with scattered showers.  The once drought card has took a back seat; at least for now.

Basis is a little firmer all around but we still lack competition between the domestic mill market and the export market for wheat.  If we really want to get bullish wheat we will need to start seeing some export demand at some point. 

The corn market appears to have good coverage threw May; but there also appears to be quiet a bit of June/July demand.  More demand then what the market is presently supplying thus leaving basis feeling on the firmer side.  Even new crop corn basis feels a little firmer as there is just a little more demand or there are more buyers at these flat price levels then there are sellers.

Don’t forget we are still offering free delayed price for corn, spring wheat, and winter wheat. 

The birdseed market is on the quiet side.  Hard to buy product but also hard to sell.  It feels like it has found a bottom provided the other grains don’t take another leg down; but upside also appears to be limited until we see birdseed sales pick up.

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