Monday, February 13, 2012
opening comments - weekly marketing meeting time change- reminder of annual meeting
Markets are called firmer this a.m. behind supportive outside markets and a firmer overnight session.
In the overnight session corn was up 4-5 cents, beans where 7-11 higher, mpls wheat was 6-8 higher, and CBOT wheat was up 9 or so. At 9:00 outside markets are supportive with the US dollar weaker down 250 on the cash index at 78.86, equities are firmer with the DOW up about 60 points, and crude is up about 1.10 a barrel.
It was noted that we sold 55 TMT of US SRW off of the US East Coast to Egypt and some of the wires I read this a.m. mentioned that was the first time since June.
USDA will release baseline acre numbers this a.m.; with the market looking for about 94 million corn acres a USDA number above 95 or below 93 could swing our push our markets one direction or another. These numbers are not survey or producer driven; that won’t come until the March 31st report which is also another quarterly stocks report.
Basis has been a little defensive the past couple of days; but with the drop in the board it could stabilize soon. Bottom line is for wheat basis we really need some export to domestic competition; today’s lead of Egypt purchasing some might be a step in the right direction; but last weeks report that left us with an all time world record in wheat carryout should tell us that we might simply not see the export-domestic competition needed to have an explosion in wheat basis. The good think about the world wheat carryout is that it doesn’t breakdown milling quality to feed quality. Ideas are that there is much more feed quality then milling quality; if that is the case we have plenty of competition for corn.
A couple other announcements. First don’t forget we have our Annual Meetings this week. Tuesday in Philip and Wed in Pierre. Along with our annual meeting on Wed we will be having our marketing meeting a little early on Wed; this week it will be from 3:00-5:00 instead of the normal 3:30 start time.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.
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