Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Forward- From the Desk - Kevin Van Trump Speaking in Pierre on 12-20-12


Below is another forward from one of our speakers (Kevin Van Trump) for our meetings this week.


Grain Marketing Seminar 2012

We would like to invite you to our
free grain marketing seminars:

Dec. 19th, 2012 – 1:00 pm MST at the
Ambulance Building in Philip, Tregg Cronin Speaker

Dec. 20, 2012 – 10:00 am CST at the Ramkota in
Pierre, Kevin Van Trump and Tregg Cronin will be speaking on the grain markets.  Lunch will be served

Please RSVP for either location by calling
800-658-3670 or 605-258-2686



Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
605-295-3100 (cell)
605-258-2166 (fax)




This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed.  If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited.   This communication makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person.  Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity contract.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures or options.

From: Kevin Van Trump [mailto:info@farmdirection.com]
Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2012 10:06 AM
To: CO-Pierre, Jeremey Frost
Subject: 12/18/12 From The Desk of Kevin Van Trump


USDA releasing info this morning that China cancelled 300,000 tons of soybeans for the 2012/13 marketing year and that another 120,000 tons where canceled by "unknown" destinations. This is obviously being digested as "negative" and is forcing some soybean bulls to rethink Chinese import demand. 

South America seems to be somewhat mixed as thoughts are Brazilian production could be huge (larger than the current USDA estimates), while Argentine production of both corn and beans could be substantially below the current USDA estimates.

Argentine government has decided to limit wheat exports during the first two-months of the year to just 2 million tons.   

Looking To Build A Floor In New Crop Soybeans: Producers wanting to lock in a portion of your 2013 estimated soybean production might want to consider buying the NOV13 $13.00 puts and selling the DEC13 corn calls to help finance this floor. We recommended this strategy a few weeks back, selling (2) corn calls for each soybean put @ even money or slightly better.  

TRADE & HEDGING UPDATES

We really haven't made any adjustments to our hedging or trading portfolio during the past couple of weeks, except for scaling back our end-of-year holiday trade exposure. 

Old-crop corn hedges will be kept in place for while longer. Currently we are up about $0.10 to $0.15 cents on these positions. I might scale out of a portion once I believe the timing is right. Which will more than likely once Brazil starts to run out of exportable corn supplies. As for now sit tight with the $7.00 floor. 

Producers who are sold out of "old-crop" bushels and want to jump back in the game in case we see late inning rally should consider the bull spreads vs. being long the outright flat price contracts. I am just afraid there is too much down side risk still in the marketplace to be outright long the board or have some type of future contract re-owership. I believe there might be a better opportunity in owning bulls spreads such as long MAR13 corn vs short JU13 corn or long MAR13 vs short MAY13 corn. I haven't officially re-entered any type of corn bull spread as of yet, but I do have a few on my radar screen and continue to patiently wait for an opportunity to initiate my position. 

JAN13 meal call/put spread is more than likely going to expire out-of-the-money on Friday. We collected about $0.02 cents when we put the position on so no harm...no foul. We will no longer have any type of JAN meal spreads or hedges in place at this time. 

Long MAR KC Wheat vs short MAR CBOT Wheat will be held a while longer, as there is talk the funds need to rebalance by purchasing a large number of KC wheat contracts and selling over a big chunk of their long CBOT wheat contracts.  We currently have some good profits in this trade, and I know some of you have talked about banking the returns. I personally want to hold it for now to see how this rebalancing shakes out. 

Coffee market continues to intrigue me. Coffee on the board has gotten hammered by more than 40% this past year, and I have to believe it is a "longer-term" bargain. The problem is this market can be extremely volatile, so holding through more downward pressure could be very painful. I will eventually be daring enough to once again dip my toe back in the waters, but for now I am going to continue watching this market from the sidelines. 
Current Portfolio - 24% at risk - 76% cash
CORN HEDGE - 10/26 Long MAR13 $6.70 & $7.00 Puts vs Short MAR13 $8.50 Call collecting $0.01 to $0.02 cents - HOLD - For producers this gives you floor at $6.70 and HTA type sales on any unsold bushels at $8.50. For specs, your ultimate risk is corn settling beyond $8.50. From my perspective it will take some serious South American weather concerns to make this happen. I am not ruling that out of the realm of possibilities, I am just saying "IF" the weather cooperates we are breaking...no two ways about it. 
CORN HEDGE 10/26 Short the DEC13 $6.00 straddle collecting about $1.30 - HOLD - This position keeps you in the money as long as DEC13 corn settles between $4.70 and $7.30. Downside same as above, it ties up money for along period of time and does NOT provide a traditional floor.  Be sure to speak with your advisor before committing bushels.    
SOY HEDGE 10/26 Short the NOV13 $13.00 straddle collecting over $2.25 - HOLD - This position could obviously be extremely volatile over the corse of time considering the massive range of the soybean market but if we end somewhere between $10.75 and $15.25 you will be able to bank a little premium. The obvious fear is a market trading below $10.75 (THIS DOES NOT PROVIDE A FLOOR!). If the market were to explode higher you would have HTA sales on the board at $15.25. I wouldn't commit a large number of bushels to this strategy, but it might be something to diversify a small portion. *For those who want more defined downside protection consider using a small portion of the premium to pick up a $12 put to something to lock in your downside. 
Long MAY13 Soybeans vs Short JUL13 Soybeans @ $0.10 inverse - Rolled 50% of the short JUL13 positions into short MAR13 positions - HOLD - Obviously if we are right in our assessment of the worlds soybean situation, one being in extremely tight supplies moving forward, and baring any complete global economic financial melt-down, you have to believe the "inverse" and front-month premium in the May contract will continue to lead the July. I believe there is big potential in this trade with somewhat limited risk. We rolled a portion of the shorts forwards to protect on the down hill slide. 
Long MAY13 Soymeal vs Short JUL13 Meal - HOLD Simply looking to play the "logistical" issues that could occur in South AMerica once the US soybean supply is depleted. 
Long JAN13 570 Soymeal Call vs Short JAN13 420 Put @ even money - HOLD - Support in the Meal market seems to be strong down around 410 but may push as low as 400. Be patient! We are currently taking some heat on this position. 
Long JUL13 $14 Bean Call & Short (2) JUL13 $9 Wheat Calls @ Even - HOLD - I like this trade because I believe there is more potential for July 2013 soybeans to push well beyond $14, especially if there are any production type glitches in South America. Wheat on the other hand will take some more serious production type problems to end up north of $9.00 per bushel. If your a wheat producer this seems a like no-brainer. You have basically no downside risk directly associated with the trade. If wheat prices race higher you are short the board with HTA type sales at $9.00, that should be ok in anyones book. If beans happen to explode you might bank a nice profit. If both head lower all you are out is the cost of putting the trade on.
Long DEC13 Chicago Wheat vs. Short JUL13 Chicago Wheat @ $0.10 - HOLD Thoughts are this spread could widen out to $0.30 to $0.50 cents once we get there considering we may see an additional 10-15% in SWR wheat acres here in the US.  
Long MAY13 Wheat vs. Short JUL13 Chicago Wheat @ 0.30 cent inverse - HOLD A more risky version of the trade listed above. You have to believe with 25% (my guess) more acres and with 80mmbu already in deliverable positions the inverse will likely be at a carry by the time we get there. 
10/12 Long MAR13 KC Wheat vs. Short MAR13 Chicago Wheat @ $0.35 cents - HOLD - With HRW stocks down aggressively and SRW stocks higher I think there is potential for this spread to move out towards $1.00 premium to the KC contract. keep in mind there are also some "quality" issues being kicked around in Argentina and Australia right now. I hate to say this, but you will need to risk about $0.20 cents on the trade simply because fund-volatility in the KC contract can cause some very abnormal spread movements so don't go overboard with size. Look to scale in on strange breaks or movements.   
Long DEC13 Corn vs Short MAY13 Wheat @ around $2.80 premium to the Wheat - HOLD - From our perspective the wheat market seems to have more downside risk than the corn market at this juncture, despite the poor growing condition reports here in the US in regards to wheat. For this reason I like being long the DEC corn market over the May wheat contract. This position could experience some extreme price swings so be cautious of the risk associated.    
11/29 Live Cattle Hedge - I am just a little worried that the Fats could fall back to the lower end of trading range. Putting a little protection on at this juncture certainly makes sense. Below are a couple of ideas: 
  • Buy the FEB13 130 Put and Sell the FEB13 135 Call for 60 points or better. Should cost you around $250 or less. Options expire on Feb 1, 2013.  
  • If you are looking to hedge a portion of your 2013 Q1 marketings. Which I would recommend. You can consider Buying an APR13 134 Put and Selling the APR140 Call for about 115 (or about $460). This give you a floor at 134 and sales on the board at 140.  I would hedge at least 25-45% of estimated marketings. 
MARKETING DETAILS - Hedging Details & Previous Cash Sales
CASH SALES
>>> Corn 2012 - 90% Sold - 10% Hedged - Last cash sale made with DEC12 corn around $8.30, previous two sales made at just above $7.90. Two previous cash sales before this made with DEC12 prices just above $7.00. Our worst sale was made at around $5.60 vs the DEC12 contract. Prior to this our early new crop sales were recommended months ago in the $6.25 and $6.50 area. Floor on 20% at around the  $7.20 area. 
We currently have hedges in place that will put us short the board vs the MAR13 contract at $8.00 and $8.20 should we rally. Those looking to move more cash bushels should target $7.74, there is strong resistance right around $7.75 so be careful. Those who don't mind the risk, can consider holding into the next wave of technical resistance at $7.95. Players using the board that currently have NO hedges in place should think about selling their cash bushels into a strong basis and re-owning the cheap volatility in the front-month. 
Corn 2013 - 30% cash sold - 0% Hedged - Last sale made with SEP13 corn trading just above $6.55, previous sales made with SEP13 trading just above $6.90, $6.15, and $6.50.  Total sold 30%
Next target is $6.75 vs SEP13 or if you don't like selling in to the Sep contract consider pulling the trigger in the DEC13 on a move to $6.55
>>> Soybeans - 90% Sold - 0% Hedged - Blew out 20% of our overestimated production between $14.80 and $15.10 vs the Jan contract. Previous cash sales came with prices vs NOV12 at $17.30 and just above $16.50. Before that we made sales at $15.55, then back in Spring on 4/3 @ $13.95, prior to that on 3/15 @ $13.25 vs SX12. Some may argue that being 90% sold is a little aggressive considering the tight stocks number, but I believe locking in good soy profits and reducing volatility helps insure profitable farming.
We are currently holding 10% of our final production. Prices are extremely strong right now, and I should probably be dumping it all, but with so many unknowns and such a tight balance sheet I want to have some bushels around incase the basis explodes or the US actually runs out of beans. Producers who don't mind playing the board and have a fairly strong basis can eliminate all cash price risk and simply re-own on paper with a limited risk call type play. My hunch however is the basis will be where the money is made, not the flat price. Therefore I am not currently re-owning the board as of yet. 
Soybeans 2013 - 25% Sold - 5% Hedged - Last sale made with NOV13 trading just above $13.40. First couple of sales made with NOV13 beans trading just above $13.10. Sold $16 NOV13 puts for $0.45 cents as a short-type hedge. 
Next target is $13.39 vs the NOV13 contract.  I strongly advocate getting at least 30% of your estimated production booked with prices somewhere between $13.25 and $13.60. 
>>> Wheat - 80% Sold - 20% Hedged - Last two cash sales made with DEC12 trading just above $9.05. Previous cash sales being made with DEC12 wheat above $7.60. Before that cash sales were last made in early Sept at around $8.25, prior sales were made in the late spring and early summer of 2011 in the $9.00 range. 20% hedged with a floor between $8.50 and $9.00. Cash marketers are 100% sold.
Looking to make final sales @ $9.60 the MAR12 contract
Wheat 2013 - 50% priced and 10% hedged. Made HTA sales on the board with prices at $9.05, $8.75, $8.60, and $8.55 vs the DEC13 contract. Floor in place at around $8.50. 
Next target is $9.10 vs the JUL13 contract or $9.25 vs the DEC13 contract. With already 50% of estimated production booked we need to be somewhat conservative here. Our sales have been great, I just don't want us to get out over the tips of our ski's with the current dry conditions. Don't be afraid to make sales just don't get out past your insurance coverage. For those with out insurance coverage I wouldn't get much over 50% sold. 
Wheat 2014 -  10% sold vs JUL14 @ $8.50 on 12/7 - 0%hedged. For those of you who can book a "futures-first" or "HTA" type contract vs the JUL14 wheat contract you might want to start thinking about it with prices right around $8.50. I am not talking about anything major but 10% might not be a bad start.

RECENT COMMENTS
Written on Dec 7th - For those of you who can book a "futures-first" or "HTA" type contract vs the JUL14 wheat contract you might want to start thinking about it with prices right around $8.50. I am not talking about anything major but 10% might not be a bad start.
Written on Nov 29th - I am a little worried that the Fats could fall back to the lower end of trading range during the next couple of months. Putting a little protection on at this juncture certainly makes sense. Therefore looking to 
Buy the FEB13 130 Put and Sell the FEB13 135 Call for 60 points or better. Should cost you around $250 or less. Options expire on Feb 1, 2013.
If you are looking to hedge a portion of your 2013 Q1 marketings. Which I would recommend. You can consider Buying an APR13 134 Put and Selling the APR140 Call for about 115 (or about $460). This give you a floor at 134 and sales on the board at 140.  I would hedge at least 25-45% of estimated marketings.
Written on Nov 21st - Producers who have a strong basis into the Thanksgiving rally should make another round of cash CORN sales. Many of our clients are banking cash prices in excess of $8.00 per bushel. With the outside market uncertainty this is a no-brainer in my opinion. Get caught up on sales and bank the big profits!!! 
  • I know many of you have been monitoring your Diesel Fuel prices, and for most prices still remain above levels you are comfortable locking in purchases. Something you might want to consider though is your Propane and Gasoline purchases. Both of these markets have been offering up considerable discounts and should be entertained. Continue to keep your eye on diesel prices, as historical tendencies generally make pricing a significant portion of your needs between Thanksgiving and Valentines Day a smart play.
Written on Nov 8th - For those who are planting wheat followed by soybeans I suggest you take a look at the following strategy: 
·  Buy the JUL13 $13.40 soybean put and sell the JUL13 $10.00 wheat call @ even money, maybe even try and work the order collecting a couple of cents to pay fees. This essentially gives you HTA type sales at $10.00 on your wheat should we run higher and provides you with an "early" floor in your beans at $13.40 should South America come through with a record crop. 
·  If you are looking to get further out with the soybean floor consider buying the NOV13 $13.40 put and selling (2) DEC13 $10.00 calls. This will get you clear through the season, but just remember this is a 2:1 so be carful with the margin and don't get yourself oversold.
·  Those with wheat acres and also corn acres may want to loan at something like this: Buy the DEC13 $6.00 put and sell the JUL13 $10.00 wheat call @ even money or Buy the SEP13 $6.30 put and sell the JUL13 $10.00 wheat call
Written on Nov 6th - Soybean Producers who can lock in a MAR13 price of $15.00 and leave the basis "open" (hoping for additional strength into early 2013) may want to consider pulling the trigger on a few more bushels!!!  

Written on Nov 1st - There is starting to be some talk in the trade about a longer-term opportunity being "long DEC13 Corn vs short MAY13 Wheat." Basically traders believe there is more "real-value" in owning the back-end of the corn inverse vs. being short the front-end of the wheat inverse. 

Written on Oct 31st EXITED - Long NOV13 Soybeans at around $15.50 (just wanted to remind everyone) - We started building this position by rolling our front-end length in the NOV12 contract to backend length in the NOV13. We were long the NOV13 contracts from $13.10 and $13.15 We banked over $4.00 on profits from our long NOV12 positions that we had drilled to the back-end. Exit these positions and once again bank the profits!!! 

Written on Oct 17th  I continue to encourage Producers to start pricing 2013 corn at prices above $6.50. Pulling the trigger on sales at these levels makes a lot of sense to me right now. 

Written on Oct 12th  NEW SOY HEDGE - Sell NOV13 $16 Puts for $0.45 cents. This gives us a little downside assistance should we break and an upside HTA type sale at $16.45 should we rally. Not bearish the market just believe $16.45 sales would be terrific and IF it never happens, then banking the $0.45 cents is ok as well. 

Written on Oct 5th  Producers using only the "cash market" should be selling ALL of the bushels you are NOT comfortable holding into the Spring of 2013!!! 
RISK DISCLOSURE: The comments and information above belong to Farm Direction, Kevin Van Trump and his team of professional trade analyst. The information is believed to be reliable but no guarantee either written or implied is being made. Please do not use this content as a personal recommendation or substitute for your own judgement. Trading and or Hedging in derivatives, futures or options may not be suited for all producers or investors. This information is solely a recap of theories and strategies being recommended by Farm Direction and or it’s team of trade analysts. Any investment, cash sale or hedge strategy that you implement based on these recommendation are solely your responsibility. Make certain you understand the risk associated. THE RISK OF LOSS TRADING COMMODITIES OR FUTURES CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. COMMODITY TRADING HAS LARGE POTENTIAL RISKS, IN ADDITION TO ANY POTENTIAL REWARDS. YOU MUST BE AWARE OF THE RISKS AND BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THEM IN ORDER TO INVEST IN THE FUTURES OR COMMODITIES MARKETS. DON'T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE. THIS IS NEITHER A SOLICITATION NOR AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL COMMODITY INTERESTS. PAST PERFORMANCE OF ANY TRADING SYSTEM OR METHODOLOGY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.

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Forward of Van Trump Report - Speaking in Pierre on Thursday Dec 20th


Below is a forward  from one of our speakers (Kevin Van Trump) for our meetings this week.


Grain Marketing Seminar 2012

We would like to invite you to our
free grain marketing seminars:

Dec. 19th, 2012 – 1:00 pm MST at the
Ambulance Building in Philip, Tregg Cronin Speaker

Dec. 20, 2012 – 10:00 am CST at the Ramkota in
Pierre, Kevin Van Trump and Tregg Cronin will be speaking on the grain markets.  Lunch will be served

Please RSVP for either location by calling
800-658-3670 or 605-258-2686




Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
605-295-3100 (cell)
605-258-2166 (fax)




This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed.  If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited.   This communication makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person.  Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity contract.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures or options.

From: Kevin Van Trump [mailto:info@farmdirection.com]
Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2012 6:39 AM
To: CO-Pierre, Jeremey Frost
Subject: GOOD MORNING: 12/18/12 Farm Direction - VanTrump Report

The Van Trump Report
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2012
Printable Copy
Morning Summary: Investors in the US stock market should be happy as the S&P 500 is showing a 14% return on the year, while the NASDAQ up 16% on the year. Many readers, especially the "doom and gloom" crowd, questioned my call last year when I said the US equity markets were going to be very strong performers. I should also point out that for the first time in 2012 - all 50 US states have gas prices below $4.00 per gallon. Hawaii has the nation’s highest price at $3.98, while Missouri is the lowest at $2.96 per gallon. Talks out of Washington are that we might be getting closer to a compromise as Obama is now proposing tax increases on those earning more than $400K, rather than $250K, while Boehner is offering to go ahead and let taxes rise on wealthy Americans' "investment income."  The "outside" macro markets  are trading in our favor this morning, but end-of-year adjustments may trump traditional type trade action. This is the main reason I suggested staying close to the shore and limiting your trade activity. Remember, some of the most seasoned and best traders in the business often have a tough time navigating in the pre-holiday waters. As a rule of thumb, when you see the locals moving closer to the shore and in many cases completely out of the water you should think twice before diving in head first.  
Money-flow continues to be one of my biggest concerns for the Ag markets moving forward. Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, which tracks the flow of money invested in commodity funds, released data showing money moving into commodities had increased by $21.6 billion this year, essentially up more than 90% from the already significant gains in 2011. My question is will money continue to pour in or have we reached a short-term peak? Citi Bank analyst seem to be thinking  the bull run in commodities is over, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley think there is still more room to the upside. A Bloomberg poll of more than 130 traders that recently came across my desk showed they suspect precious metals could lead the commodity markets in 2013 with returns as high as 25%. They were also thinking the grains could advance by 18%, and industrial metals by some 16%. I would like to say I am in agreement, but I continue to contend it feels like big-money is looking more for a way OUT, rather than a way to allocate more funding into Ag commodities right now. The CFTC just recently reported, that as a group, hedge funds had reduced their bullish bets on commodities by about 35% since September. I will continue to monitor this closely as we move forward.   
Soybean bulls are concerned about the first drop in export inspections below 40 million in several weeks. Bears are thinking China has throttled back demand to some degree as the year-end approaches. There is also talk that Mississippi River restrictions are slowing bushels to the Gulf. The bulls however remain hopeful that China will continue booking a larger than normal number of US beans on fears that South American logistical issues could cause some major delays in soybean deliveries during the 1st and 2nd Quarter of 2013. From my perspective we continue to see strong demand, as the USDA announces new sales almost every morning. Will US supplies be extremely tight in early 2013? There is no question, absolutely! The concern I have is will the funds be willing to play this short-window of opportunity, and if they do elect to play the game, will it prompt a traditional rally in the flat-price or will the opportunities be more spread related? My fear is that the funds may be apprehensive to dive head first into the soy market with such a massive South American crop projected right around the next corner, making the trade extremely difficult to navigate. Keep in mind most analyst continue to estimate the Brazilian soybean crop will come in between 79 and 83MMT's, about 25% larger than last year. I am also hearing talks that beans in certain areas of Brazil are going to start being harvested in the next three or four weeks...here we go! This ride could get wild. 
Demand continues to be a major concern for both the corn and wheat markets. Most analysts are now thinking US wheat exports are off by about 75 million bushels and corn exports are off by about 250 million bushels. The corn market is failing to excite new interest and therefore money-flow seems to becoming bored with the story, at least until the trade learns more about the size of the US corn crop and what type of reduction in "harvested acres" will be made. If your looking to play the bullish side of the corn market I would suggest the bulls spreads rather than outright flat price positions. There could be some strength down the road in the long MAR13 vs short JUL13 spread or the long MAR13 vs short MAY13 spread, especially if supplies of quality corn end up as tight as some are predicting. We are not currently in these spreads but they are on our radar screen, and I am getting closer to pulling the trigger.  
Technically traders are fearful a close in DEC13 corn below last weeks low of $6.18 could open up the door to testing the $5.95 to $6.00 level. Traders will also be watching the MAR13 contract for a break below the $7.14 area as confirmation of more weakness. New crop soybeans (NOV13 contract) seem to be struggling to break through the $13.35 to $13.40 level. Producers looking to make a few more new crop bean sales might want to consider pulling the trigger if we make it back up to that area. Wheat, yesterday, technically closed below the 200-day moving average. 
Weather, from my perspective, remains neutral to bearish. There is some additional talk of an El Nino type patterns starting to develop. I know this bearish rhetoric isn't what producers in the dry US growing regions want to hear, but with conditions in Brazil almost ideal, no real problems to report in China, and forecasters calling for more moisture across most of the Central US it's hard to get real bullish. Keep in mind there is talk of significant snowfall out west and maybe a foot or more hitting the ground up in Iowa and Wisconsin. There is also some good snowfall being forecast for areas of Kansas and Nebraska during the Christmas holiday. Some forecasters are thinking the moisture could end up missing the lower Plains and the Delta regions keeping it warm and dry. Net-net there is just not much of a weather story to pull money that has been on the sideline back to the bullish side of the game.
Water levels along the Mississippi continue to remain a major concern. Most sources had been reporting water levels at St. Louis to be just under -3.5ft with thoughts of the water level could drop to -5.0 before the end of December, possibly closing down the river. From what I heard yesterday though from the Army Corps of Engineers, it sounds like the Mississippi River is going to be able to stay open all winter. The talk is the Corps has ramped up their dredging efforts and have started blasting away at underwater rock formations. They have also started releasing more water into the river from Carlyle Lake in southern Illinois. It is estimated this will raise the river by six inches at Thebes, Illinois, by around Christmas time. Though ultimately all of these moves should help keep the river open, you should understand it could make current transportation more difficult and limited as the crews try and navigate around the Corps efforts. This could ultimately start pushing freight charges higher and for some producers cause the basis to slip a bit. 
Wheat prices continue to fall under pressure and there is now talk US wheat is by far the cheapest on the market. I suspect with prices under pressure Egypt or possibly even Brazil might step in and grab a few US bushels. If this takes place look for the US wheat market to make a little rebound from the low-end of its current trading range. Those who are short might want to temporarily move to the sideline. Keep in mind however that SovEcon is now estimating Russian wheat exports at 13.3MMT's. This compares to the USDA thinking Russia would export somewhere around 10MMT's. Point is if Russian exports are that much higher, US exports could eventually pushed a little lower. One good thing to point out is the fact Ukraine's wheat stocks as of Dec 1st had fell to 6.5 million tons down significantly from the 8.2 million reported the previous month. With total stock now dangerously close to the supply needed to cover domestic demand, the Ukraine government may have no choice but to halt exports. Keep in mind the trade has been looking for this to happen the past several weeks so I doubt there will be any major excitement when it is made official.
*Don't forget January options go off the board on Friday. Those who have in-the-money positions may want to make some pre-holiday adjustments prior to Fridays option expiration.
*The National Association for Business Economics says it is looking for the economy to grow in 2013 by 2.1% after 2.2% growth in 2012. That would continue the same tepid growth the country has seen since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009.
*Respected analyst saying Bank earnings could hit a record $38 billion in the fourth quarter, while the industry is poised to have a solid 2013. Dick Bove also saying "There's a good chance the fourth quarter of this year will be the highest earnings period ever in the history of the American banking industry." When you take a look at the $38 billion relative to the $25 billion earned in the fourth quarter last year, it'll be a 50 percent increase. Might be time to look at Citi, Bank of America, Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, etc...
From The Field
East Central Michigan - We have traditionally been a small dairy operation, with row crops as corn, beans, and wheat. We also produce a large amount of hay for feed use but with the drought hurting much of the hay crop in these parts, we have sold quite a bit this year. We have many dairy's in the area and the hay has gotten as high as I have ever seen it. The highest I had ever seen it was in 2008, when wet bales were going for up to $100 per bale. This year I have been selling pretty wet bales as high as $140 per bushel. One thing I did this past year, that I hadn't done before was 2nd crop beans after our wheat. They ended up making 22 bpa. I planted them around July 15 and harvested them on Thanksgiving afternoon. I didn't think I was going to be able to get them out but had some sunny, windy weather that dried things out just enough to get in the field. The beans struggled all year, with spider mites being really bad when it was hot and dry. I am changing up my rotation and eliminating beans and wheat and just planting corn and hay. We are extremely dry here right now. We are within the area for the lake effect but there is no snow on the ground and none to speak of that is in the forecast. Hopefully, some storms will blow in, if not, we will be in worse drought conditions then we saw this past year.
Northern Minnesota - I am what I consider a smaller farmer up here, but I own most of my ground. There are a few guys up this north that have been going more corn as of the last few years with the shorter growing seasons available. I still stick with mostly soybean and spring wheat, it's what seems to work around here. When planting a new crop you have to figure you have ten days to harvest it on a normal year. This year we had a solid 60 days to harvest which we have never seen. I don't plan on changing any rotations or trying a new crop this next year, I just feel like when guys step outside of what they know best they will get burned the worse. One pretty interesting thing we have seen around here is the rented ground has double in some areas. We have seen $85/acre ground jump as high as $170 which means next year prices will need to be above $8 and yield will have to be above 55 bushels per acre on spring wheat, which is not unheard of but makes farming a little more difficult. Thank you for your daily newsletter.
Southwest Alabama - Wanted to throw out a moisture update for you from down south. It rained all day Monday, it started about 4am on the 17t. I guess we’ve got around 3 to 3.5 inches, the creeks running now first time since March. Plenty under the circumstances! I feel like winter is finally here. Usually sets in around Thanksgiving, so we have gotten an extra few weeks off of the beginning of winter. I am now starting to wonder if it might make it up on the end of winter. Got my Christmas present early!!!!!!!!!!! Our topsoil before this was better than last year at this time before this rain so this will be a good start on recharging profile. A long ways to go yet but this truly gives you hope after the drought. I'll take whatever I can get!
Southeast Nebraska - Still taken up more acres and farming is looking good. I farm 112 pivots in my corner of the state and fuel was starting to get to me. To give you an idea of what it’s like to feed that many pivots, I can tell you that from the time I drink my coffee one morning to the next it cost me about $35,000 dollars in fuel. I just bought 160 acres last Wednesday for $13,300\acre, and another 160 out by Aurora for about the same money. I can't seem to get enough. I farmed huge when no one else did. Back in the day Deere sent people out to study the 24 row planters I built. I’m approaching 30k plus acres and its 100% irrigated except the corners. The key I have found to growth is to buy a lot of ground, not just rent it all, and have your marketing down pat on a strict business plan. I have since invested in part of Whiskey Creek steakhouses, as a side venture. It’s fun I just don’t know how profitable it is. Have a happy holiday!
Global Numbers & Market Talk
  • Talk in Brazil is that soybeans could start being harvested by mid-January, just three to four weeks away. 
  • According to the National Weather Service, this is the third warmest December start in Chicago since 1871.
  • Corn inspections now down almost 52% from last year; Wheat inspections down by about 13% compared to last year; Soybean inspection ahead of last year by about 40%.
  • Hearing that China booked another 1 million metric tons of US soybeans on top of what was announced Friday. Chinese crush margins continue to be positive and higher prices are coming as soymeal supplies are tight.
  • Private exporters report sales of 151,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations. India is thought to be tendering for 100,000 metric tons of wheat exports.
  • Remember, the January soybean options expire Friday with biggest open interest at $15.
  • Hearing talk that blasting of rock pinnacles on the Mississippi River to start sometime this week, along with increased dredging activity.
  • Rosario Grain Exchange cuts Argentine corn crop to 24 million metric tons. This is a substantial cut from the USDA’s estimate at 27.5 million metric tons. Wheat is cut to 9.5 million metric tons vs. the USDA’s estimate at 11.5 million metric tons. More confirmation that wet weather is beginning to take its toll.
  • Argentine corn seed is only 70% complete as compared to 82% last year. Soybean seeding is 73% complete nearly on par with the 77% level this time last year.
  • Celeres is confirming that Brazil will increase the amount of land planted with genetically modified soybeans, corn and cotton by 14% this season from a year ago as it shoulders a growing share of the world’s agricultural output. Nearly 89% of Brazil’s soybean crop, which is likely to be the largest in the world when it is harvested early next year.
  • Production estimates for Brazil soybeans continue to positive as AgRural has now raised their estimate to 82.2 million metric tons from 81.9 million in November.
  • Ukraine’s wheat stocks fell to 6.5 million metric tons as of December 1st from 8.2 million a month earlier according to data from state statistics. This is said to be just enough to cover domestic needs for the rest of the season as the government urged traders to halt exports. To be clear, this is just short of officially banning exports. Interestingly enough, Indonesia bought an unknown volume of Ukraine wheat for spot shipment over the weekend.
  • Analysts at SovEcon pegs Russian wheat exports at 13.3 million metric tons. USDA has them at 10 million metric tons. This would leave them only 1 million metric tons left.
  • Hearing that Speaker of the House, John Boehner has moved closer by offering tax hike on $1 million and above income earners. He also says he would allow a 1 year only debt ceiling hike.
  • I continue to hear warnings that credit rating agencies really care about how the debt ceiling situation is handled and could down grade if the issue isn’t resolved quickly. The agencies have also made it known that want to see a plan for the federal debt as well.
  • Interesting to see new estimates from Continental Resources that show a possible 903 billion barrels of original oil in place in the Bakken oil fields in North Dakota. That’s an increased estimate of nearly 57% from what they thought back in 2010.
  • Europe will have to "work very hard" to maintain the most generous welfare system in the world and remain globally competitive, said Angela Merkel, the German chancellor.
  • U.S. banks are making a last-minute push to ease new global liquidity requirements, arguing that they would need to come up with an additional $800 billion.
  • The British treasury stands to raise as much as 1 billion pounds ($1.61 billion) by selling Ministry of Defence airwaves currently reserved for military purposes.
  • Japan's Liberal Democratic party has crushed the ruling Democrats in an election landslide.
  • Chobani, the yogurt company that grew from nothing five years ago to a roughly $1 billion powerhouse today, on Monday will formally open one of the world's largest yogurt-processing plants in Twin Falls, Idaho.
From My Perspective
GMO Technology to Help Create Gluten-Free Wheat???
I saw some an interesting question being posed: Can scientists create gluten-free wheat plants to make bread with? It’s interesting as you know because the “gluten-free” diet has really become an everyday-mainstream topic as of late. It’s also a compelling story because it is dealing with biotechnology and the manipulation of seed traits. For those of you scoring at home, “biotechnology” is basically another way of saying “genetically modified organism.” The
necessity to create a gluten-free wheat is in response to the serious gluten allergies such as "celiac’s disease" that seem to be more prevalent as of late. If you know anybody with it, you know it can be a very serious allergy that can cause abdominal pain, nutritional deficiencies and a progressive flattening of the tiny hairlike villi in the stomach that are needed for proper digestion of food. Gluten is a very complicated mix of proteins that are stored in seeds of wheat, barley and rye, and some -- not all of them -- are believed to trigger the allergic reactions. Right now, the only really good way of conquering these allergies is to swear off all foods containing wheat, barley and rye. Obviously, that is not an easy task for anyone. From what I understand, scientists at Washington State University in Pullman (whose research is documented in the journal PNAS) have begun experimenting with sifting through different varieties of wheat and barley lines that lack, or make a lot less of, key gluten proteins in their grains. From here they hone in on a key enzyme which helps activate a complete set of genes that make the most problematic gluten proteins. Using a genetic engineering trick, they knocked out that enzyme. As a result, the seeds of the wheat they studied had sharply reduced levels of this set of problem proteins. The scientists believe it will take more experimenting before they can create a line that fully eliminates the problem proteins entirely. However, they seem to think they have a good chance of doing it while still keeping its capacity for baking bread. You have to believe this is good news, not only for people dealing with celiac’s disease, but also to most farmers and GMO supporters. If scientists can start finding new ways that biotechnology can help people out beyond increasing yields, you can bet the general public will be more apt to get on board and support it. Let’s hope their work comes to fruition and we can see some real differences made from biotechnology and genetically modified crops.
If Doomsday Followers Are Correct...Friday Will Be Our Last Day of Trading???
We are moving closer and closer to December 21st (this Friday), the end of the Mayan calendar, and the supposed end of the world as we know it. Millions of individuals from California to China are getting ready for what they are thinking is going to be a really bad day. As you know, December 21st marks the end of the 5,125 year cycle known to the Maya as the “Long Count.” We talked about this a few months back, but the 2009 disaster movie “2012” helped to spark doomsday rumors as the flick showed Los Angeles crashing into the sea and mammoth tsunami waves swallowing the Himalayas. Since then, writers, bloggers and New Age visionaries have come out of the woodwork giving alarming predictions in an attempt to stoke the panic. From what I understand, governments and scientists are trying to get a head of any possible tragedy. Even NASA intervened earlier this month, running a YouTube video debunking apocalyptic points, one by one. You can see one of those videos HERE. Some of the most interesting rumors that people are concerned about are as follows:

  • Some believe a rogue planet called "Nibiru" will emerge from its hiding place behind the sun and smash into the Earth. The story started with claims that Nibiru, a supposed planet discovered by the Sumerians, is headed toward Earth. This catastrophe was initially predicted for May 2003, but when nothing happened the doomsday date was moved forward to December 2012 and linked to the end of one of the cycles in the ancient Mayan calendar at the winter solstice in 2012 -- hence the predicted doomsday date of December 21, 2012.
  • A Super Black Hole at the center of the universe will suck in our planet and smash it to pieces. One theory suggests a galactic alignment which would create chaos on Earth because of the gravitational effect between the Sun and the Black hole called Sagittarius A, which is located at the center of our galaxy.
  • Another theory involves a 'polar shift', which means a reversal of the north and south magnetic poles.
  • In France, there’s a mountain where people are converging to await the arrival of aliens.
  • At least two men in China are predicting a world-ending flood. They are both building arks. The reports I saw show a gentleman named Lu Zhenghai who spent his life savings, some $160,000, building the 70 foot by 50 foot vessel powered by three diesel engines (pictured below). The most innovative ark builder, however, is Yang Zongfu, a 32 year old businessman in eastern China. His vessel, Atlantic, a three ton yellow steel ball 13 feet in diameter, is designed to survive a volcano, tsunami, earthquake or nuclear meltdown (pictured below).
  • The Chinese seemed to be the most concerned with an estimated 1 out of every 5 taking precautions of some sort. From what I have heard there have already been more than 100 million posts on Weibo, China’s version of Twitter, about Friday's scheduled end of the World.
I should point out not everybody sees a doomsday scenario. Some folks are actually joining a global counter movement promoting the date as the start of a new era of hope. I have heard one of the biggest movements is called "Birth 2012" which they believe the Mayan date will launch a global spiritual reset. Interestingly enough, in Mexico, the heartland of Mayan country, nobody is preparing for the end of the world, instead they are banking big bucks off a tidal wave of visitors who have been flocking to ancient sites across Mexico of Mayan day of doom. Before you go out and spend your life savings building an arc, just keep in mind many anthropologists as well as historians aren’t even sure whether the end of the Mayan calendar falls on December 21st, or whether it’s already happened or is still to come. Also understand that there have been many end-of-world predictions over the course of history sourced from both religious and non-religious beliefs. Just as recently as last year, American Christian radio host Harold Camping predicted the rapture occurring on May 21, 2011, and again on October 21, 2011.... Guess what? We are still here!

Cash Sales & Hedging TotalsPie Table
Today In History
1918 - The Battle of Verdun was fought on this day one of the major battles during the First World War on the Western Front. It resulted in 714,321 casualties, 377,231 on the French side and 337,000 on the German one, an average of 70,000 casualties for each of the ten months of the battle. It was the longest and one of the most devastating battles in the First World War and the history of warfare. Modern estimates increase the number of casualties to 976,000.The concentration of so much fighting in such a small area devastated the land, resulting in miserable conditions for troops on both sides. Rain combined with the constant tearing up of the ground turned the clay of the area to a wasteland of mud clogged with corpses and body parts. In some areas, the ground was composed more of human flesh and bone than of earth or vegetation. Shell craters became filled with a liquid ooze, becoming so slippery that troops who fell into them or took cover in them could drown. Forests were reduced to tangled piles of wood by constant artillery shelling, and eventually they were completely obliterated. The effect on soldiers in the battle was devastating. Many troops at the battle never actually saw the enemy, experiencing nothing but artillery shells. One French lieutenant at Verdun who was later killed by an artillery shell wrote in his diary on 23 May 1916 "Humanity is mad. It must be mad to do what it is doing. What a massacre! What scenes of horror and carnage! I cannot find words to translate my impressions. Hell cannot be so terrible. Men are mad!"
1932 - The Chicago Bears and the Portsmouth Spartans tied with the best regular-season winning percentages (although the Green Bay Packers had four more wins). To determine the champion, the league voted to hold the first official playoff game in Chicago at Wrigley Field. Because of severe winter conditions before the game, and fear of low turnout, the game was held indoors at Chicago Stadium which forced some temporary rule changes. The game was played on a modified 80-yard dirt field, and Chicago won 9–0, winning the league championship. A number of new rule changes were instituted, many inspired by the 1932 indoor championship game: the goal posts were moved forward to the goal line, every play started from between the hash marks, and forward passes could originate from anywhere behind the line of scrimmage (instead of five yards behind). The playoff game proved so popular that the league reorganized into two divisions for the 1933 season, with the winners advancing to a scheduled championship game.
1996 - (Oakland Unified School District) called on "Ebonics" to be recognized as a language of African Americans. The proposal was to implement a program. Ebonics (a blend of the words ebony and phonics) is a term that was originally intended to refer to the language of all people descended from enslaved Black Africans, particularly in West Africa, the Caribbean, and North America. The term Ebonics has primarily been used to refer to African American Vernacular English (AAVE), a dialect distinctively different from Standard American English. National attitudes towards African American Vernacular English were revisited when a controversial resolution from the Oakland (California) school board the wording states African American language systems "have origins in West [sic] and Niger–Congo languages and are not merely dialects of English. . . ." In reality, the belief underlying the Oakland proposal was that black students would perform better in school and more easily learn standard American English if textbooks and teachers incorporated AAVE in teaching black children to speak Standard English rather than mistakenly equating nonstandard with substandard and dismissing AAVE as the latter.
Upcoming Events
Fri. 12/21 - Cattle On Feed Report
Mon. 12/24 - Early CBOT & KBOT
Tues. 12/25 - Markets are closed for trade
Fri. 12/28 - Quarterly Hogs & Pig Report
Tues. 1/1 2013 - New Years Observed, markets closed Wednesday Jan 2, 2013. Markets open 9:30 am central.
Fri. 1/11 - USDA Grain Stocks and Final Production Report
Inside The Numbers
CORN MAR 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - BULLISH
N
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $9.47
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $8.45
• Short-Term Resistane Level #1 @ $7.76

• Previous Close $7.24
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $7.14
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $6.75
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $5.51

SOYBEANS JAN 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - NEUTRAL
N
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $17.95
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $16.45
• Short-Term Resistane Level #1 @ $15.09

• Previous Close $14.96^2
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $13.72
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $12.49
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $10.94

WHEAT MAR 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - NEUTRAL
N
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $11.55
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $10.15
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $9.50

• Previous Close $8.08
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $7.74
• Intermediate SupportLevel#2 @ $6.69
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $5.65

CATTLE FEB 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - NEUTRAL
-1
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $139.90
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $135.55
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $133.60

• Previous Close $133.500
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $128.15
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $125.30
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $123.70

HOGS FEB 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - BULLISH
+2
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $97.475
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $94.425
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $88.50

• Previous Close $84.750
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $82.55
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $79.05
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $76.85

CRUDE OIL FEB 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - BEARISH
-1
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $100.50
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $94.10
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $90.35

• Previous Close $87.67
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $84.50
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $77.30
• Intermediate Support Level #3 @ $67.10

S&P 500 MAR 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - BULLISH
+1
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $1,625.50
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $1,527.00
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $1,468.20

• Previous Close $1,427.75
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $1,340.00
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $1,262.50
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $1,068.00

US DOLLAR MAR 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - NEUTRAL
N
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $86.80
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $86.60
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $84.30

• Previous Close $79.620
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $78.05
• IntermediateSupport Level #2 @ $75.10
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $72.80

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My Own Personal Truisms
"Not To Trade, is often considered a good trading decision..."
"First Rule of HOLES: When you are in one stop digging..."
"Every loser in Vegas, always walks away from the table thinking he could have done better, the winners on the other hand leave while on top..."
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered..."
"The markets ability to remain irrational can often times last much longer than your ability to remain solvent..."
I'm more of a long-term player, therefore you will not see me give many short-term suggestions or trade ideas. One of my most important rules is that I always follow my long-term direction. Therefore, as long as I am "bullish" a market I will only play that particular market in one of three ways.
  • Option #1 - Conservatively long.
  • Option #2 - Aggressively long.
  • Option #3 - Sitting on the sideline.
I never initiate a "short" position in a market that I am "bullish" longer-term, nor do I initiate a "long" position in a market I am "bearish" longer-term.