Grains closed the week on a very sour note with pressure big pressure in beans and wheat; while corn closed weaker as the spill over pressure to the current king of the commodities was just too much to over come.
The weakness in the grains seemed to come from ideas of an import tax on food items into China to help with their inflation. This along with perhaps fundamental supply (increasing) and demand (decreasing) in the soybean market lead to pressure that as mentioned above was just too strong for the other grains to do much about.
As for overall market idea's I don't know if they really should have changed over the past couple weeks; I would aggree that South America appears to be getting more exports and the size of thier crop has been getting reported bigger while a few weeks ago that crop was getting smaller.
As for the inflation and import tax issues that China has thrown into the mix. I don't know that I buy it; as it has felt that demand is real and the only way to fix it might actually be to be super buyers and have the stock of food on hand so that they feel comfortable.
Technically corn looks good and the recent correction perhaps help set tighter risk parameters to trade by. Wheat and beans look rather subject; but if corn is king; then those other grains might just have to come along for the ride wether they want to or not.
Today was option experation and with that Neutral Nick exited all positons in the March. You can see that just a few days ago he left most of them and the balance where exited at today's close.
Below is a recap of all of his March positions; the ones not showing an offset where offset at today's close those he uses the actual profit/loss column.
You can see that he managed to lock in some profits; but not nearly as much as he would of liked. The good thing is that his projected at experation keeps getting bigger.
Along with having to exit all March positions Neutral Nick did have to get back to 100,000 bushels sold on each of his three grains. Look to see that info later this weekend along with some "what if" charts. Hopefully the "what if" charts will help give his banker some comfort in all the margin loans he has extended or maybe he will be the one not sleeping well at night?
The weakness in the grains seemed to come from ideas of an import tax on food items into China to help with their inflation. This along with perhaps fundamental supply (increasing) and demand (decreasing) in the soybean market lead to pressure that as mentioned above was just too strong for the other grains to do much about.
As for overall market idea's I don't know if they really should have changed over the past couple weeks; I would aggree that South America appears to be getting more exports and the size of thier crop has been getting reported bigger while a few weeks ago that crop was getting smaller.
As for the inflation and import tax issues that China has thrown into the mix. I don't know that I buy it; as it has felt that demand is real and the only way to fix it might actually be to be super buyers and have the stock of food on hand so that they feel comfortable.
Technically corn looks good and the recent correction perhaps help set tighter risk parameters to trade by. Wheat and beans look rather subject; but if corn is king; then those other grains might just have to come along for the ride wether they want to or not.
Today was option experation and with that Neutral Nick exited all positons in the March. You can see that just a few days ago he left most of them and the balance where exited at today's close.
Below is a recap of all of his March positions; the ones not showing an offset where offset at today's close those he uses the actual profit/loss column.
| Long | # of | Option | Futures | Expiration | My Trade | Futures Price | Option Price | Profits (Losses) | |
| or Short | Contracts | Symbol | Reference | Date | Date | Price | Last | Last | Actual |
| SHORT | 5.00 | CH660C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 7-Jan-2011 | 15.375 | 709.750 | 49.875 | ($8,625) |
| LONG | 5.00 | CH660C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 15-Feb-2011 | 31.375 | 709.750 | 49.875 | $4,625 |
| LONG | 6.00 | CH660P | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 8.250 | 709.750 | 0.000 | ($2,475) |
| SHORT | 6.00 | CH680C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 29-Dec-2010 | 20.000 | 709.750 | 29.875 | ($2,963) |
| SHORT | 2.00 | CH680C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 5-Jan-2011 | 18.500 | 709.750 | 29.875 | ($1,138) |
| LONG | 4.00 | CH680C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 11.125 | 709.750 | 29.875 | $3,750 |
| LONG | 4.00 | CH680C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 15-Feb-2011 | 14.750 | 709.750 | 29.875 | $3,025 |
| SHORT | 35.00 | CH700C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 23-Dec-2010 | 16.500 | 709.750 | 9.875 | $11,594 |
| LONG | 20.00 | CH700C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 2-Feb-2011 | 7.375 | 709.750 | 9.875 | $2,500 |
| LONG | 19.00 | CH700C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 14-Feb-2011 | 6.125 | 709.750 | 9.875 | $3,563 |
| 106.00 | $13,856 | ||||||||
| SHORT | 4.00 | SH1300C | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 7-Jan-2011 | 93.875 | 1368.000 | 68.125 | $5,150 |
| LONG | 4.00 | SH1300C | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 15-Feb-2011 | 68.875 | 1368.000 | 68.125 | ($150) |
| SHORT | 5.00 | SH1300P | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 29-Dec-2010 | 34.500 | 1368.000 | 0.125 | $8,594 |
| SHORT | 15.00 | SH1300P | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 12-Jan-2011 | 13.125 | 1368.000 | 0.125 | $9,750 |
| SHORT | 5.00 | SH1360P | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 12-Jan-2011 | 30.500 | 1368.000 | 0.125 | $7,594 |
| LONG | 5.00 | SH1360P | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 15-Feb-2011 | 8.750 | 1368.000 | 0.125 | ($2,156) |
| SHORT | 5.00 | SH1380P | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 4.125 | 1368.000 | 12.125 | ($2,000) |
| LONG | 5.00 | SH1440P | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 24.000 | 1368.000 | 72.125 | $12,031 |
| SHORT | 5.00 | SH1440P | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 15-Feb-2011 | 72.750 | 1368.000 | 72.125 | $156 |
| SHORT | 2.00 | SH1450C | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 5-Jan-2011 | 43.500 | 1368.000 | 0.125 | $4,338 |
| LONG | 20.00 | SH1460C | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 2-Feb-2011 | 20.750 | 1368.000 | 0.125 | ($20,625) |
| 75.00 | $22,681 | ||||||||
| SHORT | 3.00 | WH730C | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 7-Jan-2011 | 68.125 | 822.250 | 92.375 | ($3,638) |
| SHORT | 20.00 | WH750P | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 19-Jan-2011 | 13.875 | 822.250 | 0.125 | $13,750 |
| SHORT | 2.00 | WH770P | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 5-Jan-2011 | 27.375 | 822.250 | 0.125 | $2,725 |
| SHORT | 7.00 | WH830P | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 15-Feb-2011 | 6.750 | 822.250 | 7.875 | ($394) |
| LONG | 15.00 | WH850P | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 9.875 | 822.250 | 27.875 | $13,500 |
| SHORT | 8.00 | WH850P | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 15-Feb-2011 | 17.125 | 822.250 | 27.875 | ($4,300) |
| LONG | 30.00 | WH870C | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 26-Jan-2011 | 25.000 | 822.250 | 0.125 | ($37,313) |
| LONG | 8.00 | WH870C | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 2-Feb-2011 | 23.000 | 822.250 | 0.125 | ($9,150) |
| LONG | 5.00 | WH880C | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 17.750 | 822.250 | 0.125 | ($4,406) |
| 98.00 | ($29,225) | ||||||||
You can see that he managed to lock in some profits; but not nearly as much as he would of liked. The good thing is that his projected at experation keeps getting bigger.
Along with having to exit all March positions Neutral Nick did have to get back to 100,000 bushels sold on each of his three grains. Look to see that info later this weekend along with some "what if" charts. Hopefully the "what if" charts will help give his banker some comfort in all the margin loans he has extended or maybe he will be the one not sleeping well at night?
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