Thursday, December 16, 2010

Morning Comments 12-16-10

Markets are called mixed this a.m. behind a slightly firmer overnight session along with mixed outside markets and export sales that where mixed.

In the overnight session corn was up 2, beans where up 4, KC wheat was up 2, MPLS wheat was up 2, and CBOT wheat was down 1.  At 8:50
outside markets have the USD dollar down 142 on the March at 80.440, equities are near unchanged with the DOW up 5 points, European wheat is up about 1/3 of a percent, and crude is down about 20 cents a barrel.

The outlook for the tax extension is still that Ethanol and Biodiesel tax credits receive extensions.  In regards to ethanol the EIA has reported massive use each of the last couple of weeks; many are reporting that it is equating towards

Choppy is one word that has been up a lot lately and the is what the market is looking for in regards to market direction as we get closer to the upcoming Holiday’s. 

The big disappointment out there this a.m. was a super low export sale number for soybeans as they came in only at 3.1 million bushels; just a couple weeks ago they had 15 times that many.  On the positive side of things bean oil had a huge number, and wheat and corn also came in on the high side of expectations and above what is needed on a per week basis.  Wheat came in at 32.8 million bushels; which is over the 13.8 or so needed on a per week basis to meet current USDA projections.

Corn exports where 31.9 million bushels; also above what is needed on a per week basis to meet current projections.

China’s National Grain and Oils Information Centre released an estimate that China’s corn production for 2010 was at 172.5 MTT versus the USDA pegging it at 168 MMT.

The price action of late has been basically sideways and choppy with most charts appearing to be in a consolidation mode.  My thoughts are we probably continue to consolidate into the January Crop report and that adds more fuel to the fire depending on where or how things shake out on that report.

Basis feels better for most of the grains but also feels like it is getting thin as many buyers will be or are gone because of the holidays.

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